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Background
Afghanistan hasn’t had a census for quite some time but it is believed that the population is 40% Pashtuns, 27% Tajiks, 9% Uzbeks, 9% Hazara Shias. Taliban now is multi-ethnic as opposed to 20 years back. Uzbek, Pashtun, Tajiks.
As per the Taliban Sharia is supreme and wants to create a global Islamic emirate. Taliban provides the political cover and theological legitimacy for Al Qaeda to spread its jihad but is also opposed to Islamic State.
Generally speaking, Afghans certainly have a massive sense of betrayal toward the US especially after the Doha talks with the Taliban. NATO forces too were taken aback by the unexpected developments.
What transpired?
In Afghanistan regime changes not because the government forces fall but because key commanders switch sides and are the main reason why 80K Taliban forces overcame 300K Afghan government troops.
After the Doha talks, the US stopped direct involvement in skirmishes. The Afghan army was also too dependent on US contractors for supplying arms and equipment. Additionally, the US forces left the equipment as-is for the Taliban to capture, instead of handing it over to the Afghan army. So when they left, the Afghan army had no support and no equipment to fight with.
In 1996 Taliban had moved in from the South. This time Taliban had been capturing all peripheral areas for past years and cut off all aid from other countries.
Taliban moved into Kabul on Aug 15th which is India’s independence date. Sheikh Mujibur Rehman of Bangladesh was assassinated on Aug 15th. This points to the ISI and Pakistan collaboration to humiliate India. Maybe the ISI pushed the Taliban to take over Kabul on Aug 15th in spite of Taliban assurances that they will not enter Kabul before Aug 31.
What is happening now?
The VP of Afghanistan is in Panjshir and is resisting from there. Hazaras are Shias and are joining government forces in Panjshir and Parwan provinces. Resistance is isolated from all outside help physically and has no airport under control and has no support from any country as of now.
China may or may not recognize the Taliban due to their Uighur support but having given assurance to China that they will not provide shelter to Uighur rebels. Pak also would like to be the middleman in the Taliban’s interaction with other countries. Russia has its own problems with the Taliban being in contact with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Chechen rebels.
Implications for India
The immediate concern is a large number of Hindus and Sikhs and other Indian citizens that are stranded in Afghanistan. Since the Taliban rank and file is uneducated, they will not join the Afghan army but will move elsewhere to fight their jihad. Therefore, we should expect a resurgence of violence in Kashmir. Certain Hyderabad and Thane populations may want to join the Taliban as they did before with the Islamic State. The huge security challenge for India although as of now, the Taliban has given statement that they will continue to work with Indian developmental
projects in Afghanistan.
